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Biden job approval fall to lowest point, amid Russia and inflation worry

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US President Joe Biden delivers a speech at the Royal Castle in Warsaw, Poland on March 26, 2022.

Brendan Smialowski | AFP | Getty Images

President Joe Biden‘s job approval ratings keep falling in his second year in the White House, with just 40% of Americans approving of the job that he is doing, a new NBC News survey finds.

That is the lowest rating Biden has seen in his presidency.

Biden’s 3-percentage-point drop in job approval since January comes as a large majority of Americans continue to say the United States is headed in the wrong direction, the poll found.

A total of 71% of respondents to the poll said they believe the country is “off on the wrong track.” That is a single percentage point less than the portion of respondents who gave that answer in the same poll taken in mid-January.

The latest grim numbers for Biden come as he leads a Western coalition backing Ukraine’s resistance to its invasion by Russia, Americans are dealing with an inflation rate not seen since the 1980s, and as the U.S. enters the third full year of the Covid-19 pandemic.

“What this poll says is that President Biden and Democrats are headed for a catastrophic election,” Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinions Strategy, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, told NBC News.

The poll surveyed 1,000 adults, 790 of whom were registered voters, over four days last week. It has a margin of error of 3.1% among all respondents.

The political party of incumbent presidents as a rule sees a loss of seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate in mid-term elections. All 435 House seats are at stake in the November 2022 elections, while 35 Senate seats are at stake.

Democrats hold a narrow 12-vote majority in the House.

Democrats only control the Senate because of the tie-breaking vote from Vice President Kamala Harris, who can tip the scales in their favor when all 48 Democrats and the two independent senators who caucus with them vote as a bloc against the 50 GOP senators.

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Biden has seen his public approval fall significantly since taking office in January 2021 after defeating then-President Donald Trump in the 2020 election.

Trump recently has strongly suggested he will seek the Republican presidential nomination again in 2024.

Biden said Thursday he would be “very fortunate” to have Trump as an opponent in the next election, a jibe that might be warranted by Trump’s own relatively high negative approval ratings.

But the Democratic incumbent finds himself in a public approval hole that keeps getting bigger.

In the March 2021 poll by NBC News, three months into his presidency, Biden had a 53% approval rating by all Americans, and 51% among registered voters. That same poll found that 39% of all Americans, and 43% of registered voters disapproved of his performance.

In the new poll, just 41% of registered voters approved of Biden’s performance, and 54% of voters disapproved of it.

Only 16% of registered voters said they strongly approved of the job Biden was doing, while 43% strongly disapproved of it.

When Biden took office in January 2021, just 21% of Americans thought the U.S. was headed in the right direction, with 73% saying it was on the wrong track.

Three months later, the numbers had shifted significantly, with 36% saying the country was moving in the right direction, and 56% saying the opposite.

After that, however, Americans again became more pessimistic, with only 22% of people saying the U.S. is headed in the right direction, a percentage that has not changed since October’s NBC poll.

When Americans were asked how they personally felt about Biden, a total of 37% said they had very positive or somewhat positive feelings. A total of 46% said they had very negative or somewhat negative feelings about him.

When people were asked about Trump, a total of 36% said they had very positive or somewhat positive feelings about him. A total of 50% had very negative or somewhat negative feelings about the former president.



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Pressure on China’s factories grows as U.S. demand falls

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Employees work on an electronics production line on Feb. 2, 2023, at a factory in Longyan, Fujian province in China.

China News Service | China News Service | Getty Images

BEIJING — For some factories in China, it’s not full steam ahead after the end of zero-Covid.

All the factories that U.S. toy maker Basic Fun works with in China — about 20 of them — told workers not to return immediately after the Lunar New Year holiday, said CEO Jay Foreman.

That’s because of a flood of inventory in the first half of last year, which didn’t get sold as consumer prices in the U.S. surged over the summer and into the fall, he said. Basic Fun’s products include Care Bears and Tonka Trucks.

The official Lunar New Year holiday in China ended Jan. 27, but the travel period runs until Feb. 15. The festival is typically the only time each year that migrant workers — more than 170 million people in China — can visit their hometowns.

“Every factory I spoke to said they’re going to have less people employed this year than last year,” Foreman said. He expects U.S. consumer demand to pick up later this year.

We are long on China, says Deutsche Bank

China’s exports to the U.S. in the toys, games and sports category account for about 6% of all exports to the country, according to China customs data accessed through Wind Information. That category of toy exports to the U.S. saw a slight drop in 2022, the data showed.

“Retail, anything consumer discretionary, they were hit quite hard. It was really a combination of high inventory and demand dropping quite a lot for the export markets,” said Johan Annell, partner at Asia Perspective, a consulting firm that works primarily with Northern European companies operating in East and Southeast Asia.

He said consumer electronics was seeing a similar situation.

“For other industries, the picture is much better. Some are struggling to keep up with trailing orders and catch up with everything they had to deliver last year,” he said.

China abruptly ended its zero-Covid policy in December. But restrictions on business activity were tight for most of 2022, including a lockdown of Shanghai for about two months in the spring.

U.S. demand slows

Retail sales in the U.S. — China’s largest trading partner on a single-country basis — have slowed in the last few months. China’s exports to the U.S. barely grew in 2022, and the U.S. economy is expected to slow further in 2023.

That’s on top of tariffs and bilateral tensions, which have escalated over the last several years.

“We expect we will continue to grow, but the pressure is very great,” Ryan Zhao, director of Jiangsu Green Willow Textile, said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.

“What I heard about the market, 2023 will be very hard. U.S. demand is declining. The Russia-Ukraine war hasn’t ended.”

Read more about China from CNBC Pro

Some U.S. clients’ orders have disappeared.

Zhao said his company was working with a high-end bedding and textile brand in New York that filed for bankruptcy last year. To survive in the “shrinking” market, he said the company is shifting to lower-priced products popular with younger consumers.

That means in order to grow revenue, Zhao has to sell more items than before – and he plans in the next few months to hire 10 more workers locally for his factory of 30 people in China.

How China came to dominate the U.S. in smartphone manufacturing

When asked by CNBC in January, China’s customs administration acknowledged the pressure on China’s exports from slowing external demand, and noted rising risks of a global recession.

Trade data show demand for Chinese goods is going up in other markets, such as Southeast Asia.

Since China’s Covid wave ended, employers have increased the share of part-time positions and manufacturers are increasingly paying workers every week, instead of once a month, according to Qingtuanshe, a job search platform within the Alipay mobile app.

While there’s no clear change in wages since the reopening, Qingtuanshe noted the pay range for factory jobs declined sharply during the pandemic.

Skills mismatch

For China’s domestic economy, the drop in overseas demand reveals a more widespread employment problem: lack of highly skilled factory workers.

“It’s generally becoming more difficult to find workers and to find the right workers,” Annell said.

“You have some high youth unemployment and there is a pool of labor, but when you start looking into it in a specific city, it’s hard to find both the qualified supervisors” and technical workers, he said.

Manufacturing accounts for 18% of China’s labor force, and construction workers another 11%, said Dan Wang, Shanghai-based chief economist at Hang Seng China. However, the majority only have at best a middle school education, making it hard for them to change to another industry, she added.

She expects there will be more than 1 million unemployed people in rural areas — who are not counted by official statistics on urban unemployment. She attributed it to the decline in exports and a push for automation in China, while the real estate sector’s demand for construction workers declines.

Lackluster growth in consumption also limits how much the services sector can absorb new workers, as it had prior to the pandemic, Wang said.

“It looks like the ultimate solution is still on some government-sponsored training. As time goes by, more of those workers need to be trained to actually earn a living.”



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FTX bankruptcy fees near $20 million for 51 days of work

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The FTX logo on a laptop screen.

Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg via Getty Images

FTX’s top bankruptcy, legal, and financial advisors have billed the company more than $19.6 million in fees for work done in 2022, according to Tuesday bankruptcy court filings. More than $10 million of that was for work done in Nov. 2022, as Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire entered bankruptcy protection in Delaware.

The firms will initially only be paid a little over $15.5 million, or 80% of the value of their work, under a court-ordered interim compensation plan.

The law firms that billed FTX are Sullivan & Cromwell, Landis Rath & Cobb, and Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan. Professional advisor Alvarez & Marsal and financial advisor AlixPartners also billed the company.

Some of the work that the firms billed for involved meetings with other companies that also were billing FTX for their time, or involved corresponding with former and current executives, including Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, Alameda Research.

Landis Rath & Cobb and Sullivan & Cromwell, FTX’s primary legal firms, billed the company a combined $10.7 million for over 8,400 hours of work. Landis Rath & Cobb billed $1.16 million for work done between Nov. 11 and Nov. 30.

Sullivan & Cromwell, a target for both lawmakers and Bankman-Fried over their pre-petition work with FTX, sought over $9.5 million in compensation for over 6,500 billable hours, in the period between Nov. 12 and Nov. 30. Over a third of those billable hours, totaling over $4.8 million, were for the work of partners, who typically charge the highest hourly rate.

Sullivan & Cromwell assigned over two dozen partners to FTX’s case, according to the filings. Jim Bromley, a partner at Sullivan & Cromwell and a lead attorney on the case, billed over 178 hours for the weeks between Nov. 12 and Nov. 30.

The legal filings offer a glimpse into the ferocious work done by advisors to untangle FTX’s complex web of accounts and slipshod accounting standards. Sullivan & Cromwell lawyers spent over 1,900 hours in November alone on work related to analyzing and recovering FTX’s global asset base, according to the filings.

Alvarez & Marsal, an advisory firm, billed $1.9 million for over 2,300 hours of work on “business operations,” meeting with lawyers, FTX executives, analyzing FTX’s holdings using blockchain explorers, and reviewing “cybersecurity scenarios.” Those operations included multiple hours in November corresponding with and calling Ellison, 5.3 hours in a single day imaging iPad files and other electronic devices, and a first-day hearing conference call that lasted 2.5 hours.

Quinn Emanuel, which billed over $1.5 million for work done between November and December, assigned over a dozen lawyers to the case, nine of whom were partners. One of those partners, Sascha Rand, billed over $13,000 for a single day’s work in November, corresponding and reviewing first-day issues. Another Quinn lawyer filed for over $17,000 on a “non-working travel” day trip beginning Nov. 21, returning on Nov. 22.

AlixPartners, a financial consulting firm, billed $1.1 million for work done over the course of a little more than a month, from Nov. 28 to Dec. 31.

FTX’s advisors aren’t entitled to their full fees yet. Under an interim compensation order, professional advisors are paid 80% of their filed fees, provided that no objection is filed. Full compensation for legal and advisor fees will not occur until a final fee application is filed, whenever FTX’s bankruptcy saga concludes.

That doesn’t mean that advisors won’t get their due, however. A 2019 Federal Reserve study said professional and consulting fees in Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy were over $2.56 billion.

Lawyers for Sullivan & Cromwell did $40,000 worth of work just to appear in FTX’s first bankruptcy hearing on Nov. 22, based on court filings of hours billed and hourly rates.

Prosecutors say Sam Bankman-Fried's contact with FTX employees suggests witness tampering



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ByteDance testing food delivery service via Chinese version of TikTok

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ByteDance’s Douyin has been trialing a food delivery service since December as it looks to expand its business beyond advertising.

Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images

ByteDance told CNBC on Wednesday that it has been testing a type of food delivery service in China via its short video app Douyin, potentially pitting itself against major e-commerce companies like Alibaba and Meituan.

And the company is now considering extending the service beyond the trial.

Douyin is the Chinese version of TikTok which are both owned by ByteDance.

A Douyin spokesperson said that the company has been “testing a feature in Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu that enables merchants to promote and sell ‘group-buying’ packages to Douyin users in these select cities and have them delivered.”

Restaurant owners often livestream on Douyin to market their business. While doing this, they can offer discounts and coupons for their food to users watching the videos. Multiple users can then purchase that offer and choose a time within two days for the food to arrive.

The model is very different from Meituan and Alibaba’s Ele.me which are both on-demand food delivery services, much like Uber Eats.

“We would consider expanding the feature to more cities in the future depending on the testing results. There is no detailed timeline yet,” a Douyin spokesperson said.

The company has been testing the feature since December.

China’s food delivery industry is dominated by Meituan and Ele.me.

But ByteDance’s tentative steps into the market suggests it wants a slice of the market, which was worth $66.4 billion in 2022, according to research firm IMARC Group.

ByteDance has been dipping its toes into different areas of online shopping. Last year, the company launched a fashion website called If Yooou outside of China.



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